Thursday, November 19, 2015

Merkel: a Rational Scientist in an Irrational World

Since Angela Merkel became Chancellor of Germany in November 2005, several situations have confronted her and shaped her chancellorship: the Eurozone economic problems centering on but not limited to Greece; Putin’s aggressive foreign policy; and Islamic terrorism.

Merkel’s style arises from her intense study of physics and chemistry: she earned her doctorate in 1986. She did not study political science or law, and so comes to government from a rational point of view rather than a professional one.

Being in the center of major geopolitical questions, Merkel has regularly appeared at or near the top of the list, created by Forbes magazine, of the world’s most powerful women. She was at the very top of the list in 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006. In 2010, she was in fourth place.

Even on the list of the most powerful people - women and men - in the world, Merkel has made impressive appearances. In 2015 and 2012, she was ranked second, behind Vladimir Putin in first place. In 2014 and 2011, she was fourth. In 2013, she was fifth. In 2010, she was sixth.

Merkel entered politics full-time when she was elected, in 1990, as a representative in Germany’s Bundestag, similar to the U.S. House of Representatives. She is and was a member of the CDU political party.

Her election came shortly after the GDR, as East Germany was officially known, dissolved, and shortly after East and West Germany reunited, freeing the millions of Germans who’d lived under the socialist dictatorship in the east.

One factor which shaped Merkel’s worldview is her experience of the GDR, of living under Soviet socialist oppression, of throwing off that oppression, of gaining freedom, and of reuniting Germany.

Vladimir Putin symbolizes that Soviet oppression, and is perhaps a ghost of it. He has been a constant factor in global dynamics ever since Merkel became chancellor. Stefan Kornelius writes:

Putin had been president for five years when she became Chancellor. Later he swapped roles and spent some time as Prime Minister before returning as head of state in 2012. Ever since Merkel became Chairman of the CDU, Putin has been the leader of Russia. Not only that, they are almost the same age - Putin is two years older than her - and have followed similar paths in life, almost as if they were mirror images. Putin spent five years in Dresden, where he witnessed the collapse of the GDR and the Warsaw Pact and became fluent in German. Merkel grew up in the Soviet garrison town of Templin, showed her gift for languages by learning Russian, and like Putin experienced the fall of the Wall at first hand. While Merkel had always glorified the West, and demonstrated her love of freedom by following Western politics, 1989, the great year of change, certainly didn’t transform Putin into an ardent democrat. Whenever Merkel and Putin meet, two world views collide. For Merkel, the fall of the Berlin Wall was a liberating experience, whereas for Putin, a lieutenant colonel in the KGB, it was a deeply traumatic event. He sees the collapse of the Soviet Union as a historic defeat.

Dealing with Putin requires mental toughness, and Merkel has it. It is perhaps no coincidence that the only other woman to deal effectively with Putin also appeared frequently on the Forbes list of the world’s most influential women: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Another question which required both Merkel’s toughness and her ability for scientific analysis was the international financing of the eurozone. Fiscal discipline means enduring some hardships in order to avoid worse hardships. French leader Sarkozy worked with Merkel, but did not last in his office as long as she in hers.

Saying ‘no’ to additional debt is not always popular, but in the long run has proven to be the only path which offers even a slim chance for the survival of the regional and continental economy. Historians Alan Crawford and Tony Czuczka write:

For Merkel, whose position as Europe’s principal decision maker was cemented six months later when she lost her ally Sarkozy in France’s presidential election, the moment of truth for the euro area was the latest incarnation of financial crisis that had rocked her chancellorship almost since the beginning. Merkel was just 18 months into office when she was confronted with the worst global financial meltdown in living memory. She set about resolving each stage of crisis for which there was no playbook – in the banks, the economy, and as a result of euro countries’ debt loads – and she learned along the way. Catapulted to the forefront of European policy making during the euro trauma, it came to define Merkel’s chancellorship even as she struggled for a solution. Some leaders, like Papandreou and Berlusconi, collapse and fall victim to crisis; others like Merkel flourish. Lambasted for delaying, for backtracking, and for refusing to commit more resources to the crisis fight, Merkel showed at Cannes that she can suddenly be decisive, brutally so.

Merkel has been nimble enough to adjust her strategies as needed. Trying to cajole Greece into controlling its profligate spending, in 2010 she at first floated the idea of nudging Greece out of the eurozone; by late 2012, she was working on ways to keep Greece in the eurozone, but using the leverage to persuade it to rein in its extravagant spending and massive debt.

The big question mark looming on the horizon of Merkel’s chancellorship is how Europe will protect itself from Islamic terrorism, and how it can handle the flood of Syrian refugees - many of whom are neither Syrian nor refugees. It is far too early in history to know the outcome of this situation, for good or for ill.

Given her expertise in physics and chemistry, Merkel’s view of both economics and geo-strategic negotiating is a highly rational one. So far, it has been successful.